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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.